The 3 ES/NQ setups I use every morning (Market Profile + ICT)

If you trade ES / NQ at a prop firm, you have two non-negotiable needs: a precise plan every morning, and brutal execution discipline. This guide gives you both.

My name is Lucas, I'm a funded futures trader operating from Albertville, France under an SASU. What you're about to read is what I actually do. The 3 setups below fill 80% of my tickets, whether on a Static 25K account or a Fundamental 100K Phidias account.

TL;DR: Setup #1 for the day's direction (IB Break). Setup #2 for the confirmed trend day (Single Print + OB). Setup #3 for the high-paying reversals (Liquidity Sweep + FVG). Max 3 trades per day, minimum 1:2 RR, stops always at the broker.

The fundamentals in 2 minutes: Market Profile + ICT

The 3 setups combine two complementary frameworks. If you already know them, skip to Setup #1.

Market Profile — the 4 key concepts

POC (Point of Control)

The price where the largest volume was traded during the session. This level attracts price like a magnet. Institutions watch it first.

VAH / VAL (Value Area High / Low)

The boundaries of the zone where 70% of the volume was traded. Above the VAH = outside value (often a rejection). Below the VAL = same logic on the downside.

Single Print

A price zone where volume was extremely low — often a fast traversal. These zones are retested 80% of the time within 24-72 hours. The key to Setup #2.

Initial Balance (IB)

The first 60 minutes of the RTH session (9:30-10:30 AM ET). The range of this period defines the probable structure of the day. For more depth: my Market Profile intraday setup guide.

ICT / Smart Money Concepts — the 4 key concepts

Order Block (OB)

The last candle before an impulsive move. These zones represent fresh institutional footprint. Price often comes back to test them before resuming direction.

Fair Value Gap (FVG)

A "gap" between 3 consecutive candles. The market comes back to fill these gaps 70% of the time.

Liquidity Pool / Sweep

The zones where retail traders' stops accumulate. Market makers hunt these stops before kicking off the real move. The heart of Setup #3.

BOS (Break of Structure)

Price breaks a significant high or low and continues in that direction. A trend confirmation signal. Full methodology: my ICT guide and ICT kill zones for futures.

Setup #1 — Initial Balance Break + POC Respect

The morning pattern that gives you the probable direction of the day within the first 90 minutes. Statistically, 70% of trend days start with this signal.

The 4 execution steps

1. Identify the Initial Balance

At 10:30 AM ET, mark the high and low formed during the first 60 minutes of the RTH session.

2. Measure the IB size

Compare today's IB to the 20-day average. If today's IB is smaller than average, the probability of a break with extension is high. If the IB is already huge, skip — a range day is more likely.

3. Wait for a clean break

Price must break decisively through the IB high or low (at least 2 points ES / 5 points NQ). Then return to test the level without re-entering it.

4. Enter on the retest

Entry happens at the moment of confirmed retest (rejection candle at the IB level). Not before. The impatient ones get stopped out by false signals.

Concrete example on ES

A Tuesday morning:

• IB formed between 5230 (low) and 5244 (high) at 10:30 AM ET
• IB size = 14 points (20D average = 18 points → smaller ✓)
• At 10:47 AM, price breaks 5244 and rises to 5249
• At 10:55 AM, retest at 5244 with green candle at 5245

Action: long at 5245, stop 5240 (-5 pts), target 5258 (+13 pts).
RR: 1:2.6. Probability of hitting target: ~65%.

When NOT to take this setup

• If the IB is larger than the 20D average
• If a high-impact news event is scheduled within the hour
• If volume on the break is weak (trap)
• If the VIX spikes +10% or more
• If you're already at +50% of your daily profit target

Position management

I take 50% of profits at 1:1, stop to breakeven, and let the remaining 50% run to target. This partial secures profit on every winning trade.

Setup #2 — Single Print Retest + Order Block

The precise signal that turns a range day into a trend day. Works well in the US session after 1:00 PM ET when institutional volumes kick in.

Why this setup works

A single print is a level where the market crossed quickly without building value — it's magnetic. When price comes back to test this SP AND an order block forms right on that level, you have a powerful confluence. Institutions left their footprint — they come back to defend it.

The 3 steps to identify it

1. Mark the previous day's single prints

Every morning, look at the prior day's profile (Sierra Chart, MenthorQ or TradingView). Note the single print zones (isolated horizontal line in the TPO profile).

2. Wait for price to return there

Price must retrace to the single print. This retest generally happens within 24-72 hours. Be patient — don't force it.

3. Identify the order block on the retest

On the SP retest, look for the last candle before the final rejection. Entry is on the retest of that OB, not the SP directly.

Concrete example on NQ

Last night, NQ formed a single print between 18420 and 18440. This morning:

• Price opens at 18510, consolidates between 18480-18520
• At 11:15 AM ET, downward break toward 18440
• At 11:30 AM, price touches 18425 and forms a rejection candle with wick at 18420
• This candle is my order block
• At 11:35 AM, retest of the top of this candle (18440), rejection, bullish restart

Action: long at 18445, stop 18415 (-30 pts = -$150), target 18515 (+70 pts = +$350).
RR: 1:2.3 — valid setup.

The strict rules

• Never more than 2 trades per day on this setup
• The retest must happen with volume higher than the 20-candle average
• If price breaks the SP without rejection, don't force — setup invalidated
• Entry only with OB confirmation (clean rejection, no doji)
• If the day's POC is < 3 points from entry, skip — RR too weak

Setup #3 — Liquidity Sweep + Fair Value Gap

The reversal setup that pays big. I take it 2-3 times per week max, but it delivers 1:3 to 1:5 RR. The most technical — reserved for traders who already master the first two.

The logic — why it works

Retail traders place their stops just above highs and just below lows. Market makers organize stop hunts to trigger them, absorb the liquidity, then reverse price in the other direction.

This setup positions you on the pros' side: you enter just after the sweep, when the real move begins.

The 3 mandatory conditions

1. A significant high or low exists

Prioritize swing highs/lows from the previous 2-4 hours on the 5M, or Asia session highs/lows. The more visible and tested the level, the stronger the accumulated liquidity.

2. The sweep is clean and fast

Price must exceed the level, stay 1 to 3 candles beyond, then return decisively. No prolonged consolidation — otherwise it's a real break.

3. A Fair Value Gap forms on the return

On the return after the sweep, look for an FVG in the following 3 candles. That's your entry zone: limit order in the middle of the FVG, or market entry at its edge.

Concrete example on ES

Friday morning, ES forms a swing high at 5252 at 10:45 AM ET. Then:

• Between 11:00 AM and 12:30 PM, retraces to 5241 then climbs
• At 12:47 PM, spike to 5254 (exceeds high by 2 points = sweep)
• Next 2 candles, drops to 5248
• Between 5248 and 5250 a bearish FVG forms
• At 12:58 PM, rises to test the FVG at 5250 then rejects

Action: short at 5250, stop 5255 (-5 pts), target 5235 (+15 pts).
RR: 1:3 — ideal setup.

The strict rules

• Never this setup if news within the next 30 minutes
• The sweep must exceed the level by at least 2 points ES / 5 points NQ
• The return after sweep must be fast: max 10 candles of 5M
• If the FVG doesn't form within 3 candles, skip
• Minimum RR imposed: 1:3

Advanced position management

For this setup: 33% at 1:1 (BE stop), 33% at 1:2, remaining 33% runs to target. This lets you:

• Secure a gain at 1:1 (immediate protection)
• Capture average trades at 1:2
• Profit from home-run trades that hit 1:3+

My 7-point pre-trade checklist

Every morning before my first trade, I tick these 7 points. If even one isn't validated, I don't trade.

Application on a Phidias challenge

The 3 setups are profitable in absolute terms, but on a prop firm challenge you must adapt them to the drawdown constraint.

Sizing on a Static 25K account

Fixed $500 drawdown → each trade limited to 20% of max drawdown = $100 max. Concretely:

This conservative sizing lets you take 5 to 10 consecutive losing trades without blowing up. It's survival that passes a challenge, not speed.

Sizing progression

At $500 cumulative profits, go to 2 micros. At $1,000, 3 micros. Scaling progressively, never brutally.

For the full 30-day plan: my 30-day Phidias challenge guide.

The 3 free tools I use

1. TradingView (free plan)

Perfect to map your key levels in the morning. Community Pine Script indicators cover Market Profile, VWAP, Volume Profile. Limit: 2 indicators per chart on the free plan. Full setup: my TradingView for prop firm guide.

2. ForexFactory economic calendar

100% free, 100% essential. Filter on USD currencies if you trade ES/NQ — you eliminate 80% of the noise.

3. Phidias Volume Profile (Rithmic/dxFeed)

Free access to the TPO profile on Rtrader Pro or dxFeed via Phidias. Sufficient for the 3 setups. See also: my Volume Profile futures trading guide.

The 4 mistakes to absolutely avoid

Mistake #1 — Trading before 9:30 AM ET

The European session on US futures is poorly liquid. Wider spreads, less clean moves. Wait for the US open at 9:30 AM ET.

Mistake #2 — More than 3 trades per day

Each additional trade increases commissions ($3.98 round-turn) and variance. The best traders take 1-3 trades per day. No more.

Mistake #3 — Increasing sizing after a winning streak

5 winning trades in a row don't change your statistical probability. Keep sizing constant. Scaling mathematical (after X$ of profit), not emotional.

Mistake #4 — Neglecting the trading journal

Without a journal, you repeat your mistakes endlessly. Note for each trade: setup, entry, stop, target, result, emotions. Review every weekend. More details: keeping a rigorous trading journal.

Conclusion: 3 setups, 1 discipline

You now have the 3 setups I use, the pre-trade checklist, and the approach to apply them on a Phidias challenge. The rest is execution.

The 3 things to remember:

1. Backtest first. 1 month minimum of historical data before trading live.
2. Respect the 3 trades max/day rule. Quality > quantity. Always.
3. Join a community. Trading alone is repeating your mistakes endlessly. My free Discord shares my trade plan every morning.

Now it's your turn. These setups don't do anything for you — they give a framework. Execution discipline remains your responsibility.